Lower interest rates (3.8% in May) have been a catalyst to increased sales activity. Future rate increases will again diminish the buying power. Indecisive buyers have a lot of competition. A strong economy and banking system will prohibit a market correction in the near future and the tight inventory will continue to drive up prices… just a little slower this year – a good time to make a move!
National Job Creation:
2018 actual +2.5M
2019 May +75,000 (YTD 800,000 // YTD 2018 1.1m)
2019 Forecast +1.9M
US Unemployment: ↓3.6%
(50+ year low)
New Jersey Job Creation
2018 actual +39,000 jobs
2019 Jan-May +14,700
NJ Unemployment ↓3.8%
(lowest in 12 years – down from 9.8% in 2009)
Y-O-Y Sales Activity + 1% (5/19 compared 5/18)
(YTD +3% Y-O-Y) largest gain in <400K
NJ Unsold Inventory continues to rise slowly
below 400K a sharply decreased (-13% May)
– 41% compared to the cyclical high in 2011
equating to 3.5 months of sales – in the seller’s favor
Bergen County YOY comparison (May 2019 to May 2018)
Y-T-D Single Family Closed Sales +10.8%
Y-T-D Single Family Pending Sales + 5.8%
Y-T-D Single Family New Listings + 6.3%
Y-O-Y Days-on-Market Single Family +16.9% (from 65 in 2018 to 76 days in 2019)
Y-O-Y Residential Median Sold Price + 0.7%
Residential Absorption Rate +4.8%
(from 4.2mo in 2018 to 4.4mo in 2019)
(<5-6mo of inventory = seller’s market and >5-6mo of inventory = buyer’s market)
Mortgage Rates down 3.8% from 4.5% in May 2018
resulting in more buyers jumping into action, increasing the competition among buyers