Lower interest rates (3.8% in May) have been a catalyst to increased sales activity. Future rate increases will again diminish the buying power. Indecisive buyers have a lot of competition. A strong economy and banking system will prohibit a market correction in the near future and the tight inventory will continue to drive up prices… just a little slower this year – a good time to make a move!

National Job Creation:                   

2018 actual                          +2.5M  

2019 May                             +75,000   (YTD 800,000 // YTD  2018 1.1m)

2019 Forecast                       +1.9M   

 

US Unemployment:                3.6%                   

(50+ year low)

 

New Jersey Job Creation 

2018 actual                          +39,000 jobs

2019 Jan-May                      +14,700

 

NJ Unemployment                3.8%

(lowest in 12 years    down from 9.8% in 2009)

 

Y-O-Y Sales Activity              + 1% (5/19 compared 5/18)

(YTD +3% Y-O-Y) largest gain in <400K   

 

NJ Unsold Inventory            continues to rise slowly                

below 400K a sharply decreased    (-13% May)

– 41% compared to the cyclical high in 2011

equating to 3.5 months of sales – in the seller’s favor

 

Bergen County     YOY comparison (May 2019 to May 2018)

Y-T-D Single Family Closed Sales                     +10.8%

Y-T-D Single Family Pending Sales                    + 5.8%

Y-T-D Single Family New Listings                       + 6.3%

Y-O-Y Days-on-Market Single Family                  +16.9%     (from 65 in 2018 to 76 days in 2019)

Y-O-Y Residential Median Sold Price                    +  0.7%

 

Residential Absorption Rate                               +4.8% 

(from 4.2mo in 2018 to 4.4mo in 2019)

(<5-6mo of inventory = seller’s market and >5-6mo of inventory = buyer’s market)

 

Mortgage Rates down 3.8%  from 4.5% in May 2018

resulting in more buyers jumping into action, increasing the competition among buyers